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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-24.5 (-03)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   97-02 (00)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   3.057%  
 
 
 
 
Wednesday, November 14, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are slightly lower across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 3.162% after closing at 3.141% prior.

Treasuries held fairly steady overnight ahead of the Consumer Price Index reports, while U.S. equity futures turned higher as crude oil rebounded in the wake of its longest losing streak on record. After a delicate start to the week, contracts for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones indices all advanced heading into the open of today’s session. Meanwhile, treasuries dropped and the dollar weakened after the U.S. consumer price data was received this morning. CPI rose 0.30% as expected in October following a 0.10% increase in September, bringing its YoY level up to 2.50% from 2.30% prior. Excluding food and energy, the CPI inflation rose 0.20% MoM after a 0.10% gain in September, although its YoY level slipped to 2.10% from 2.20% prior. Moreover, we received the Real Average Weekly Earnings YoY which rose 0.90% in October versus a downwardly revised 0.80% increase prior, while Real Average Hourly Earnings YoY rose 0.70% in October versus a 0.50% increase prior.

The downward trend for MBA Mortgage Applications continued for the week ended November 9 which fell 3.20% in activities after slowing 0.70% the week prior. Purchase applications fell 2.30% after a slight rise of 0.50% the week prior, while refinancing activities dropped 4.30% after falling 2.50% the week prior. Based on a four-week moving average basis, purchase applications have dropped 13.50% since May, while refinance applications have fallen to their lowest level since 2000. The pace of homes sales, including both new and existing, are expected to continue dropping heading into 2019 due to higher financing costs and higher prices. Elsewhere, Fedspeak is back in focus today with Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Quarles speaking before the House Financial Services Panel, and Fed Chairman Powell scheduled to discuss economic issues with Dallas Fed President Kaplan later this evening.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 2.1 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  11/12 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  11/13 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Oct 108.00 107.40 107.90 -  
                   
  11/13 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Oct -$100.00b -$100.50b -$63.20b -  
                   
  11/14 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 9 Nov - -3.20% -0.70% -  
                   
  11/14 CPI MoM 05:30 Oct 0.30% 0.30% 0.10% -  
                   
  11/14 CPI YoY 05:30 Oct  2.50% 2.50% 2.30% -  
                   
  11/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Nov 20.00 - 21.10 -  
                   
  11/15 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Oct  0.50% - 0.10% -  
                   
  11/15 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Nov 20.00 - 22.20 -  
                   
  11/15 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Oct  0.10% - 0.50% -  
                   
  11/15 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Oct  3.30% - 3.50% -  
                   
  11/15 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Oct  0.10% - 0.00% -  
                   
  11/15 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Oct  - - 2.70% -  
                   
  11/15 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 10 Nov 213k - 214k -  
                   
  11/15 Continuing Claims 05:30 3 Nov 1625k - 1623k -  
                   
  11/15 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 11 Nov - - 61.30 -  
                   
  11/15 Business Inventories 07:00 Sep 0.30% - 0.50% -  
                   
  11/16 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Oct 0.20% - 0.30% -  
                   
  11/16 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Oct 78.20% - 78.10% -  
                   
  11/16 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Nov 11.00 - 8.00 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as trading or investment advice in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice  
 
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