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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-13.5 (+16)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-18 (+02.5)  
 
  Support   3.125%  
 
  Resistance   1.691%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, November 14, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Continue to Decline: Trade Progress Remains Uncertain
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries rallying across all maturities. The 10-Year Treasury yield is currently at 1.8273, 5.87 bps decreased from prior closing of 1.8860.

The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite were all down this morning at the open due to the continued uncertainty surrounding trade relations. The Dow and S&P 500 both declined 0.10%, and the NASDAQ slipped 0.30%. The US and China continue to meet to discuss the terms of the interim agreement and China insists that removing some of the tariffs must be completed before they are willing to sign any trade agreement. Trump has given no indication if Chinas terms will be accepted and continues to state that the two countries are close to finalizing phase one of the trade deal. The US Treasury will auction $55 billion in four-week bills, and $40 billion in eight-week bills. The yield on 10-year Treasuries dropped four basis points to 1.84%. The yield on 2-year Treasuries slipped two basis points to 1.61%. Germanys 10-year yield declined three basis points to -0.33%. Britains 10-Year yield fell two basis points to 0.739%. Japans 10-Year yield dipped three basis points to -0.067%. The price for gold increased 0.30% to $1,468.30 an ounce. West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 0.70% to $57.51 a barrel. This rise came after there was an unexpected drop in US crude inventory.

In this weeks report released by the US Department of Labor, data showed that jobless claims increased 14,000 to 225,000 and the insured jobless rate was 1.20%. Applications to collect unemployment reached their highest level since the end of June. State claims showed that 33 states and territories reported increased claims, while only 20 states and territories reported lower filings for unemployment benefits. Illinois and Colorado were among the states with the highest claims, 2,398 and 1,263, respectively. However, California and Virginia showed the largest decrease in claims, -1,749 and -1,517, respectively. The Department of Labors report also showed that the number of people receiving benefits dropped by 3,000 to 1.69 million. Energy goods prices increased 2.80%, food costs also increased 1.30% which was its largest increase this year. Producer prices, excluding food, energy, and trade services, showed a slight 0.10% increase from the previous month and a 1.50% jump from the prior year. Goods prices and services prices increased 0.70% and 0.30%, respectively.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 5.87 bps from prior closing.

 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  11/11 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  11/12 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Oct 102.00 102.40 101.80 -  
                   
  11/13 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 8 Nov - 9.60% -0.10% -  
                   
  11/13 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 05:30 Oct - 0.90% 0.90% 1.00%  
                   
  11/13 CPI MoM 05:30 Oct 0.30% 0.40% 0.00% -  
                   
  11/13 CPI YoY 05:30 Oct 1.70% 1.80% 1.70% -  
                   
  11/13 CPI Index NSA 05:30 Oct 257.227 257.346 256.759 -  
                   
  11/13 CPI Core Index SA 05:30 Oct 265.074 265.011 264.595 -  
                   
  11/13 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Oct -$130.0b -$134.5b -$100.5b    
                   
  11/14 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Oct 0.30% 0.40% -0.30%    
                   
  11/14 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Oct 0.90% 1.10% 1.40% -  
                   
  11/14 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 9 Nov 215k 225k 211k -  
                   
  11/14 Continuing Claims 05:30 2 Nov 1683k 1683k 1689k 1693k  
                   
  11/14 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 10 Nov - 58.00 59.10 -  
                   
  11/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Nov 6.00 - 4.00 -  
                   
  11/15 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Oct -0.20% - 0.20% -  
                   
  11/15 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Oct -2.20% - -1.60% -  
                   
  11/15 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Oct -0.10% - -0.20% -  
                   
  11/15 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Oct - - -1.60% -  
                   
  11/15 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Oct 0.20% - -0.30% -  
                   
  11/15 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Oct -0.40% - -0.40%    
                   
  11/15 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Oct 77.00% - 77.50% -
                   
 
 
 
 
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