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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-07 (+10.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-23.5 (+04.5)  
 
  Support   2.472%  
 
  Resistance   2.271%  
 
 
 
 
Wednesday, November 15, 2017
 
 
Treasuries are higher across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.350% after closing at 2.388% during the prior session.

Treasuries advanced overnight as the tone for reduced risk strengthened following news from around the world and a global pullback in riskier asset classes continued. Global news yesterday included continued challenges with the U.S. tax reform, an oil-led sell-off in commodities, data suggesting an over-heated China economy, a falling Japanese stock market, and continued withdrawal of investors from high-yield bond credits. Today, the month-over-month Consumer Price Index rose 0.10% matching expectations from market surveys and dropping from its previous 0.50% mark; and CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.20%, also matching expectations, and above a previous mark of 0.10%. Year-over-year CPI registered a 2.00% increase for October, in line with surveys and below its 2.20% previous change. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index registered a 3.10% increase for the week ended November 10, rising for the first time since the week ended October 13. Adjusted Retail & Food Services Sales registered a 0.20% increase for October, above expectations of 0.00% but below its 1.60% change from its prior period.

The economic calendar continues tomorrow with Jobless Claims, Industrial Production and MBA Mortgage Foreclosures among others.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 3.8 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  11/13 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Oct -$59.00 b -$63.20 b -$45.80 b -  
                   
  11/14 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Oct 104.00 103.80 103.00 -  
                   
  11/14 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Oct 0.10% 0.40% 0.40% -  
                   
  11/14 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Oct 2.40% 2.80% 2.60% -  
                   
  11/15 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 10 Nov - 3.10% 0.00% -  
                   
  11/15 CPI MoM 05:30 Oct 0.10% 0.10% 0.50% -  
                   
  11/15 CPI YoY 05:30 Oct 2.00% 2.00% 2.20% -  
                   
  11/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Nov 25.10 19.40 30.20 -  
                   
  11/15 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Oct 0.00% 0.20% 1.60% 1.90%  
                   
  11/15 Business Inventories 07:00 Sep 0.00% 0.00% 0.70% 0.60%  
                   
  11/15 Total Net TIC Flows 01:00 Sep - - $125.00 b -  
                   
  11/15 Net Long-term TIC Flows 01:00 Sep - - $67.20 b -  
                   
  11/16 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 11 Nov 235k - 239k -  
                   
  11/16 Continuing Claims 05:30 4 Nov 1900k - 1901k -  
                   
  11/16 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Nov 24.10 - 27.90 -  
                   
  11/16 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Oct 0.30% - 0.70% -  
                   
  11/16 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Oct 2.50% - 2.70% -  
                   
  11/16 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Oct 0.40% - 0.80% -  
                   
  11/16 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Oct - - 2.90% -  
                   
  11/16 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Oct 0.50% - 0.30% -  
                   
  11/16 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Oct 76.30% - 76.00% -  
                   
  11/16 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 12 Nov - - 51.50 -  
                   
  11/16 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Nov 67.00 - 68.00 -  
                   
  11/17 Housing Starts 05:30 Oct 1193k - 1127k -  
                   
  11/17 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Oct 5.80% - -4.70% -  
                   
  11/17 Building Permits 05:30 Oct 1250k - 1215k 1225k  
                   
  11/17 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Oct 2.00% - -4.50% -3.70%  
                   
  11/17 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Nov 21.00 - 23.00 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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