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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-09 (+09.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   97-14.5 (+05.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   3.057%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, November 15, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are higher across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 3.097% after closing at 3.126% prior.

Treasuries climbed higher overnight as investors turned to havens as a series of British government ministers resigned in protest to Prime Minister May’s exit deal to leave the European Union. U.S. equity futures fell with European stocks after Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, the highest profile of several resignations, announced his departure that plunged the Brexit process into crisis. The odds of an unexpected Brexit outcome continue to rise as Britain could potentially leave the EU without a deal due to the lack of support that PM May has received. Elsewhere, the dollar sustained its higher level as the latest data showed the U.S. Retail Sales increased in October despite the rise in gas prices. Retail Sales Advance rose 0.80% versus an expected 0.50% MoM gain following a downwardly revised 0.10% decline in September. Excluding auto, retail sales rose 0.70% while control group sales rose 0.30%.

The primary regional Fed bank November reports were also released this morning with the Empire Manufacturing index beating expectations at 23.30 versus 20.00 per consensus, while the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook disappointed as the index dropped to 12.90 from 22.20 prior. The busy calendar also included the October Import Price Index which rose 0.50% MoM following a downwardly revised increase of 0.20% prior which brought its YoY level up to 3.50% from a revised 3.10% prior. The Export Price Index rose 0.40% MoM to bring its YoY level up to 3.10% from 2.70% prior. Lastly, Initial Jobless Claims continued to hold steady as it rose 2k to 216k for the week ended November 10. Meanwhile, Continuing Claims for the week ended November 3 rose to 1676k from an upwardly revised 1630k the week prior.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 2.9 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  11/12 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  11/13 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Oct 108.00 107.40 107.90 -  
                   
  11/13 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Oct -$100.00b -$100.50b -$63.20b -  
                   
  11/14 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 9 Nov - -3.20% -0.70% -  
                   
  11/14 CPI MoM 05:30 Oct 0.30% 0.30% 0.10% -  
                   
  11/14 CPI YoY 05:30 Oct  2.50% 2.50% 2.30% -  
                   
  11/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Nov 20.00 23.30 21.10 -  
                   
  11/15 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Oct  0.50% 0.80% 0.10% -0.10%  
                   
  11/15 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Nov 20.00 12.90 22.20 -  
                   
  11/15 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Oct  0.10% 0.50% 0.50% 0.20%  
                   
  11/15 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Oct  3.30% 3.50% 3.50% 3.10%  
                   
  11/15 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Oct  0.10% 0.40% 0.00% -  
                   
  11/15 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Oct  - 3.10% 2.70% -  
                   
  11/15 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 10 Nov 213k 216k 214k -  
                   
  11/15 Continuing Claims 05:30 3 Nov 1625k 1676k 1623k 1630k  
                   
  11/15 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 11 Nov - 60.50 61.30 -  
                   
  11/15 Business Inventories 07:00 Sep 0.30% 0.30% 0.50% -  
                   
  11/16 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Oct 0.20% - 0.30% -  
                   
  11/16 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Oct 78.20% - 78.10% -  
                   
  11/16 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Nov 11.00 - 8.00 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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