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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-10 (-03)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-18.5 (+00.5)  
 
  Support   3.110%  
 
  Resistance   1.691%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, November 15, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Increase as US and China Work towards Finalizing Trade Deal
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries lower across all maturities. The 10-Year Treasury yield is currently at 1.8308, 1.22 bps increased from prior closing of 1.8186.

Stocks climbed this morning after Larry Kudlow, the White House’s economic advisor, stated that the US and China were gaining momentum towards finalizing a trade deal. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 both traded 0.40% higher at the open, while the NASDAQ climbed 0.60%. The yield on 10-Year Treasuries increased one basis point to 1.83%. The yield on 2-year Treasuries gained two basis points to 1.61%. Germany’s 10-Year yield advanced one basis point to -0.34%. Britain’s 10-Year yield climbed two basis points to 0.725%. Japan’s 10-Year yield decreased less than one basis point to -0.068%. The US Treasury will auction $5 billion in three-month bills and $42 billion in 6-month bills on November 18th. West Texas Intermediate crude oil remained unchanged at $56.75 a barrel. Gold fell 0.30% to $1,466.94 an ounce. The International Institute of Finance released a report Thursday which showed that global debt jumped by $7.5 trillion to $250.9 trillion, in the first six months of 2019; the US and China are responsible for over 60% of that increase.

The Commerce Department recently released a report that showed US retail sales increased 0.30% due to gains from auto dealers and filling stations. Meanwhile, sales at furniture stores and home furnishings slipped 0.90%, and food service fell 0.30% which was the steepest decline for both all year. The Labor Department’s recent report showed the US import index dropped 3.00% compared to the previous year, the largest decrease in three years. The public impeachment hearing continues today as Marie Yovanovitch, the former US ambassador to Ukraine from 2016-2019, is scheduled to testify today on Trump’s actions leading up to the now-infamous July 25 conversation with the Ukrainian President. In a previous closed-door deposition, Yovanovitch claimed that she was removed from her position because Trump and his allies found her to be an “impediment to their desire to have the Ukrainians open investigations into his political rivals”. Yovanovitch is the only witness scheduled to appear before the House Intelligence Committee today.

The curve has bear-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield up 1.22 bps from prior closing.

 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  11/11 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  11/12 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Oct 102.00 102.40 101.80 -  
                   
  11/13 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 8 Nov - 9.60% -0.10% -  
                   
  11/13 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 05:30 Oct - 0.90% 0.90% 1.00%  
                   
  11/13 CPI MoM 05:30 Oct 0.30% 0.40% 0.00% -  
                   
  11/13 CPI YoY 05:30 Oct 1.70% 1.80% 1.70% -  
                   
  11/13 CPI Index NSA 05:30 Oct 257.227 257.346 256.759 -  
                   
  11/13 CPI Core Index SA 05:30 Oct 265.074 265.011 264.595 -  
                   
  11/13 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Oct -$130.0b -$134.5b -$100.5b -  
                   
  11/14 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Oct 0.30% 0.40% -0.30% -  
                   
  11/14 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Oct 0.90% 1.10% 1.40% -  
                   
  11/14 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 9 Nov 215k 225k 211k -  
                   
  11/14 Continuing Claims 05:30 2 Nov 1683k 1683k 1689k 1693k  
                   
  11/14 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 10 Nov - 58.00 59.10 -  
                   
  11/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Nov 6.00 2.90 4.00 -  
                   
  11/15 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Oct -0.20% -0.50% 0.20% 0.10%  
                   
  11/15 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Oct -2.20% -3.00% -1.60% -2.10%  
                   
  11/15 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Oct -0.10% -0.10% -0.20% -  
                   
  11/15 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Oct - -2.20% -1.60% -  
                   
  11/15 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Oct 0.20% 0.30% -0.30% -  
                   
  11/15 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Oct -0.40% -0.80% -0.40% -0.30%  
                   
  11/15 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Oct 77.00% 76.70% 77.50% -
                   
 
 
 
 
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