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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-05.5 (-05)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-24 (-01)  
 
  Support   2.472%  
 
  Resistance   2.271%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, November 16, 2017
 
 
Treasuries are lower across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.355% after closing at 2.323% prior.

This morning we received the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on November 11th which rose 10k to 249k from 239k prior. Continuing Claims for the week ending on November 4th fell 44k to 1860k from a revised 1904k prior. We also received the October Import Price Index which rose 0.20% following an upwardly revised 0.80% increase in September; Import Price Index YoY is now up 2.50% versus 2.70% prior. Lastly, we received the Industrial Production print for October, which rose 0.90% following an upwardly revised 0.40% increase prior.

House GOP leaders say they’re confident as they have the votes to pass the tax-overhaul bill later today, but major roadblocks for a tax reform is still expected in the Senate. The vote on the tax legislation is expected to take place after 10:30 AM (PT). There are several scheduled Fed speakers on deck today, including Cleveland Fed Mester at 6:10 AM (PT), Dallas Fed Kaplan at 10:10 AM (PT), Fed Governor Brainard at 12:45 PM (PT), and Fed President Williams at 1:45 PM (PT). Also later today, U.S. will sell $11 Billion 10-Year TIPS re-opening at 10:00 AM (PT).

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 3.2 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  11/13 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Oct -$59.00 b -$63.20 b -$45.80 b -  
                   
  11/14 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Oct 104.00 103.80 103.00 -  
                   
  11/14 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Oct 0.10% 0.40% 0.40% -  
                   
  11/14 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Oct 2.40% 2.80% 2.60% -  
                   
  11/15 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 10 Nov - 3.10% 0.00% -  
                   
  11/15 CPI MoM 05:30 Oct 0.10% 0.10% 0.50% -  
                   
  11/15 CPI YoY 05:30 Oct 2.00% 2.00% 2.20% -  
                   
  11/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Nov 25.10 19.40 30.20 -  
                   
  11/15 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Oct 0.00% 0.20% 1.60% 1.90%  
                   
  11/15 Business Inventories 07:00 Sep 0.00% 0.00% 0.70% 0.60%  
                   
  11/15 Total Net TIC Flows 01:00 Sep $75.00 b -$51.30 b $125.00 b $130.20 b  
                   
  11/15 Net Long-term TIC Flows 01:00 Sep - $80.90 b $67.20 b $73.20 b  
                   
  11/16 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 11 Nov 235k 249k 239k -  
                   
  11/16 Continuing Claims 05:30 4 Nov 1900k 1860k 1901k 1904k  
                   
  11/16 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Nov 24.60 22.70 27.90 -  
                   
  11/16 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Oct 0.40% 0.20% 0.70% 0.80%  
                   
  11/16 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Oct 2.50% 2.50% 2.70% -  
                   
  11/16 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Oct 0.40% 0.00% 0.80% 0.70%  
                   
  11/16 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Oct - 2.70% 2.90% 2.80%  
                   
  11/16 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Oct 0.50% 0.90% 0.30% 0.40%  
                   
  11/16 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Oct 76.30% 77.00% 76.00% 76.40%  
                   
  11/16 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 12 Nov - 52.10 51.50 -  
                   
  11/16 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Nov 67.00 70.00 68.00 -  
                   
  11/17 Housing Starts 05:30 Oct 1190k - 1127k -  
                   
  11/17 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Oct 5.60% - -4.70% -  
                   
  11/17 Building Permits 05:30 Oct 1250k - 1215k 1225k  
                   
  11/17 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Oct 2.00% - -4.50% -3.70%  
                   
  11/17 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Nov 21.00 - 23.00 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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