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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-09.5 (+05.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   97-18.5 (+05)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   3.057%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, November 16, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are slightly higher across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 3.093% after closing at 3.111% prior.

Treasuries held steady overnight amid looming uncertainty surrounding the Brexit turmoil. Investors turned their focus back on the central bank early in today’s session after Fed Vice Chairman Clarida suggested that the Fed’s policy is in the vicinity of neutral on interest rates. The Vice Chairman’s comments was resounding of Atlanta Fed President Bostic’s statement on his speech Thursday that perhaps the federal funds rate is not too far from neutral. Treasuries edged higher on Clarida’s dovish comments as it opposed Fed Chairman Powell’s stance who stated in mid-October that the central bank remains a long way from neutral. Clarida added that the Fed has to factor in the global growth concerns while charting its policy; the dollar weakened on the Vice Chairman’s remarks.

On the economic calendar, we received the October Industrial Production print which increased 0.10% MoM following a downwardly revised 0.20% gain in September. The market consensus called for a 0.20% increase in October, so the data was slightly weaker than expected. Moreover, the Capacity Utilization ticked slightly lower to 78.40% from an upwardly revised 78.50% in September; the September data was initially released at 78.10%. Lastly, the Manufacturing (SIC) Production rose 0.30% following an upwardly revised 0.30% gain prior, besting expectations as the market consensus called for a 0.20% increase MoM. Later today at 1:00 PM (PT), the September Total Net TIC Flows and Net Long-term TIC Flows will be released. The Net Long-term TIC Flows is expected to show $62.70 Billion after releasing at $131.80 Billion prior.

The curve has bull-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield down 1.8 bps from prior closing.

Have A Nice Weekend!
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  11/12 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  11/13 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Oct 108.00 107.40 107.90 -  
                   
  11/13 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Oct -$100.00b -$100.50b -$63.20b -  
                   
  11/14 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 9 Nov - -3.20% -0.70% -  
                   
  11/14 CPI MoM 05:30 Oct 0.30% 0.30% 0.10% -  
                   
  11/14 CPI YoY 05:30 Oct  2.50% 2.50% 2.30% -  
                   
  11/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Nov 20.00 23.30 21.10 -  
                   
  11/15 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Oct  0.50% 0.80% 0.10% -0.10%  
                   
  11/15 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Nov 20.00 12.90 22.20 -  
                   
  11/15 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Oct  0.10% 0.50% 0.50% 0.20%  
                   
  11/15 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Oct  3.30% 3.50% 3.50% 3.10%  
                   
  11/15 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Oct  0.10% 0.40% 0.00% -  
                   
  11/15 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Oct  - 3.10% 2.70% -  
                   
  11/15 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 10 Nov 213k 216k 214k -  
                   
  11/15 Continuing Claims 05:30 3 Nov 1625k 1676k 1623k 1630k  
                   
  11/15 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 11 Nov - 60.50 61.30 -  
                   
  11/15 Business Inventories 07:00 Sep 0.30% 0.30% 0.50% -  
                   
  11/16 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Oct 0.20% 0.10% 0.30% 0.20%  
                   
  11/16 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Oct 78.20% 78.40% 78.10% 78.50%  
                   
  11/16 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Nov 11.00 15.00 8.00 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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