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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-0.5 (-04.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-19.5 (-03)  
 
  Support   2.472%  
 
  Resistance   2.271%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, November 20, 2017
 
 
Treasuries are marginally lower across the curve this morning from Friday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.376% after closing at 2.364% during the prior session.

The journey for a tax overhaul that strengthens the economy as promised by the Administration appears uncertain, even as both Houses in Congress appear to be moving fast with the legislative calendar. Republicans need tax reform approved by the year end in order to deliver on a major milestone before 2018’s mid-term elections. But with both Houses recessing for the Holidays this week and only 15 days left in the legislative calendar before December 31; the prospects of entering a prolonged conference committee between both bodies to ease the major differences contained in both bills leave little expectation that the process will not carry over into January. However, it now seems that two private negotiations are under way in an attempt to find common ground and expedite the reconciliation process before entering the committee conference. The Republicans thin majority in the senate will make it harder to ignore the Democrat’s wish list of amendments, adding further challenges.

The economic calendar for the week kicked off today with the U.S. Leading Index registering a 1.20% change for the month of October. The mark represented an increase from both its revised prior mark of 0.10% and its expected 0.80% change. Other releases for the shortened week include: Existing Home Sales and Chicago Fed Activity Index tomorrow, and MBA Mortgage Applications, Weekly Jobless Claims, Consumer Sentiment and Inflation on Wednesday. Further, the FOMC will release minutes from its October 31 / November 1 meeting on Wednesday.

The curve has bear-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield up 1.2 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  11/20 Leading Index 07:00 Oct 0.80% 1.20% -0.20% 0.10%  
                   
  11/21 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Oct 0.20 - 0.17 -  
                   
  11/21 Existing Home Sales 07:00 Oct 5.40m - 5.39m -  
                   
  11/21 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 Oct 0.20% - 0.70% -  
                   
  11/22 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 17 Nov - - 3.10% -  
                   
  11/22 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 18 Nov 240k - 249k -  
                   
  11/22 Continuing Claims 05:30 11 Nov 1880k - 1860k -  
                   
  11/22 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Oct P 0.40% - 2.00% -  
                   
  11/22 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Oct P 0.50% - 0.70% -  
                   
  11/22 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 19 Nov - - 52.10 -  
                   
  11/22 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Nov F 98.10 - 97.80 -  
                   
  11/22 FOMC Meeting Minutes 11:00 1 Nov - - - -  
                   
  11/23 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  11/24 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Nov P 55.00 - 54.60 -  
                   
  11/24 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Nov P 55.40 - 55.30 -  
                   
  11/24 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Nov P - - 55.20 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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