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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   1.651%  
  Support   1.601%  
  Resistance   1.378%  
  FN 2.5% Coupon   101.906 (-0.109)  
     Tuesday, November 23, 2021

Minor Selloff In US Futures, Oil Plunges


The Market opened today's session with treasuries lower across all maturities. The 10-year Treasury yield is currently at 1.6530, 2.94 bps higher than prior closing of 1.6236.

The trimming of dovish Fed bets on the Powell news and renewed concerns about the growth outlook are pushing global stocks lower. S&P 500 futures pointed to a small move lower at the open, with the contracts on the Nasdaq 100 Index fell 0.30% after Monday’s last-hour selloff in technology stocks. Biden is expected to announce a release of more than 35 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as soon as today. The move, expected to be coordinated with releases from India, Japan and South Korea, would pit some of the world’s biggest consumers against the OPEC+ alliance for control of the oil market. The crude prices dropped below $76 ahead of the expected announcement. This morning’s Purchasing Managers Indexes showed price pressures continued to rise for businesses in the euro area. Despite the composite reading coming in well above expectations at 55.80, the outlook looks far from optimistic with the risk of further Covid lockdowns adding to concerns about prolonged inflation. President Joe Biden’s selection of Jerome Powell for a second term as Federal Reserve chair was welcomed by Wall Street, with the continuity taking one risk off the table ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.  The Existing Home Sales number released yesterday increased 0.80%, beating estimates and increasing to the highest pace since January. Zoom Video Communications Inc. lost 9.00% in premarket trading on fears of  slowing growth. The US Dollar rose 0.20% as compared to its peers. Lael Brainard, picked to be vice chair of the Federal Reserve, is expected to be a critical defender of its commitment to maximum employment across demographic groups at a time when other U.S. central bankers are more worried by inflation.

The curve has bear-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield up 2.94 bps.

This Week's Events
  11/22 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Oct 0.10 0.76 -0.13 -0.18  
  11/22 Existing Home Sales 07:00 Oct 6.20m 6.34m 6.29m -  
  11/23 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Nov P 59.10 59.10 58.40 -  
  11/23 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Nov P - 56.50 57.60 -  
  11/24 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 19-Nov - - -2.80% -  
  11/24 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 20-Nov 260k - 268k -  
  11/24 Continuing Claims 05:30 13-Nov 2030k - 2080k -  
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