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Market Commentary

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Market Commentary


Tuesday
November 25, 2014
10-YEAR NOTES   99-17 (+01)
2.304%
FN 3.5% COUPON   103-23.5(+00)
SUPPORT   2.42%
RESISTANCE   2.00%
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GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.9% in the third quarter of 2014, according to the "second" estimate released today, up from 3.5% in the “first” estimate. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, exports, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. Personal Consumption rose +2.2% vs. +1.8% prior (consensus +1.9%).  The FHFA house price index posted a +0.5% gain in August, following rise of +0.2% in July, and came in flat for September (consensus +0.4%). The Richmond Fed manufacturing index in October rose to 20 from September's 14, and for November the index is expected to slip to 16. Treasuries are modestly lower in reaction to the hotter than expected GDP print and the curve has bull flattened with 2s10s down -0.7 bps.

This Week's Events:

DATE EVENTS TIME (PST) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED
11/25 GDP Annualize QoQ 05:30 3Q S 3.3% 3.9% 3.5% -
11/25 GDP Price Index 05:30 3Q S 1.3% 1.4% 1.3% -
11/25 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 September 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4%
11/25 CaseShiller House Price Index YoY 06:00 September - 4.81% 5.10% 5.08%
11/25 CaseShiller House Price Index NSA 06:00 September - 167.49 167.68 167.64
11/25 Consumer Confidence Index 07:00 November 96.0 - 94.5 -
11/25 Richmond Fed Manuf. Index 07:00 November 16 4 20  
11/26 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 November 21 - - 4.9% -
11/26 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 October -0.6% - -1.3% -1.1%
11/26 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 November 22 288K - 291K -
11/26 Continuing Claims 05:30 November 15 2350K - 2330K -
11/26 Personal Income 05:30 October 0.4% - 0.2% -
11/26 Personal Spending 05:30 October 0.3% - -0.2% -
11/26 New Home Sales 07:00 October 470K - 467K -
11/26 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 October 0.7% - 0.2% -
11/27 MARKET CLOSED - - - - - -
11/28 NA - - - - - -

 

 

 
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