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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-14 (-07.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   97-18.5 (-02.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   3.034%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, November 26, 2018
 
 
Market opened today's session with treasuries declining across all maturities.  10-Year treasury yield is at 3.0718, 3.28 bps increased from prior closing of 3.0390.

Treasuries continued selling-off from overnight while Italy's bonds rallied as their state officials considered lowering 2019 budget deficit target. US stock futures advanced along with global stocks as the outlook for interest rates deemed more optimistic among investors. In this regard, investors will turn their focus to Fed speeches throughout the week, especially Fed Chair Powell speaking to Economic Club of New York on Wednesday, as well as the FOMC meeting minutes which will be released on Thursday, seeking more clarity on the 2019 rates outlook. In commodity space, both WTI and Brent crude oil gained with the advance in Brent crude marking the largest increase in eight weeks.

We have a fairly light calendar this morning with only two releases. US October Chicago Fed National Activity index came in at 0.24 vs. consensus of 0.18 with prior data downwardly revised to 0.14 from 0.17. 50 of its 85 monthly individual indicators made positive contributions while the remaining 35 were negative. US Dallas Fed Manufacturing activity for November, on the other hand, came in lower at 17.60 vs. consensus of 24.50 and prior of 29.40.

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 3.28 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  11/26 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Oct 0.18 0.24 0.17 0.14  
                   
  11/26 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Nov 24.50 17.60 29.40 -  
                   
  11/27 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Sep 0.40% - 0.30% -  
                   
  11/27 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Sep 0.20% - 0.09% -  
                   
  11/27 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Sep 5.25% - 05.49% -  
                   
  11/28 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 23 Nov - - -0.10% -  
                   
  11/28 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Oct P 0.40% - 0.40% -  
                   
  11/28 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 3Q S 3.50% - 3.50% -  
                   
  11/28 Personal Consumption 05:30 3Q S 3.90% - 4.00% -  
                   
  11/28 GDP Price Index 05:30 3Q S 1.70% - 1.70% -  
                   
  11/28 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 3Q S - - - -  
                   
  11/28 New Home Sales 07:00 Oct - - 553k -  
                   
  11/28 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Oct - - -5.50% -  
                   
  11/28 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Nov - - 15.00 -  
                   
  11/29 Personal Income 05:30 Oct - - - -  
                   
  11/29 Personal Spending 05:30 Oct - - - -  
                   
  11/29 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Oct - - - -  
                   
  11/29 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Oct - - - -  
                   
  11/29 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Oct - - - -  
                   
  11/29 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Oct - - - -  
                   
  11/29 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 24 Nov - - - -  
                   
  11/29 Continuing Claims 05:30 17 Nov - - - -  
                   
  11/29 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 25 Nov - - - -  
                   
  11/29 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Oct - - 0.50% -  
                   
  11/29 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Oct - - -3.40% -  
                   
  11/29 FOMC Meeting Minutes 11:00 8 Nov - - - -  
                   
  11/30 Chicago Purchasing Manager 06:45 Nov - - - -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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