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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-27.5 (-07)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-19.5 (-03)  
 
  Support   3.069%  
 
  Resistance   1.668%  
 
 
 
 
Wednesday, November 27, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Climb on Strong Economic Data
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries selling-off across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 1.7586, 1.72 bps increased from prior closing of 1.7414.

US stock index futures edged higher along with global equities as the risk-on mood is sparked by the trade optimism again among investors, driving American benchmarks to record highs. The positive trade noise pushed stocks higher overnight in Asia except in China where signs of slowdown in the economy were posted. Profits of Chinese industrial firms fell the most on record in October, a decline of 9.90% year over year. President Trump said yesterday that talks on the first phase of a deal were near completion. Treasuries sold-off after demand for US business equipment unexpectedly surged in October by the most since January this year. Elsewhere, WTI crude drifted this morning, trading slightly above $58 a barrel as trade optimism building around a partial deal offset a report indicating an increase in US crude stockpiles.

MBA mortgage applications index rose 1.50% last week. Purchases decreased 1.20% and refinances increased 4.20% after rising 6.70% and falling 7.70% in prior week, respectively. A moderate upward revision took place for GDP in the third quarter, printing at 2.10% vs. 1.90% prior and consensus. However, Personal Consumption remained unchanged at 2.90%, showing some signs of diminished momentum. Durable Goods Order in October surged to 0.60% after a 1.40% decline in September, well above consensus of -0.90% as signs of progress in trade talks lightened up the mood in the business investment front. Another signs of economic stability showed in labor data. Initial Jobless claims slipped to 213k from a revised prior of 228k vs. 221k consensus, and Continuing Claims also dropped to 1640k from 1697k revised prior vs. 1691k consensus. MNI Chicago PMI printed 46.30 vs. 47.00 consensus. Lastly, Personal Income showed 0.00% change while Personal Spending came in line with consensus of 0.30%. Later today, the Fed will release the Beige Book at 11:00 AM (PT).

The curve has bear-Flattened with UST 10-Year yield up 1.72 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  11/25 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Oct -0.20 -0.71 -0.45 -  
                   
  11/25 Dallas Fed ManfActivity 07:30 Nov -3.80 -1.30 -5.10 -  
                   
  11/26 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Oct P 0.20% 0.20% -0.40% -0.70%  
                   
  11/26 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Sep 0.30% 0.60% 0.20% -  
                   
  11/26 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Sep 0.30% 0.36% -0.16% 0.15%  
                   
  11/26 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Sep 2.01% 2.10% 2.03% 2.02%  
                   
  11/26 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Nov 5.00 -1.00 8.00 -  
                   
  11/27 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 22 Nov - 1.50% -2.20% -  
                   
  11/27 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 3Q S 1.90% 2.10% 1.90% -  
                   
  11/27 Personal Consumption 05:30 3Q S 2.80% 2.90% 2.90% -  
                   
  11/27 GDP Price Index 05:30 3Q S 1.70% 1.80% 1.70% -  
                   
  11/27 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 3Q S 2.20% 2.10% 2.20% -  
                   
  11/27 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Oct P -0.90% 0.60% -1.20% -1.40%  
                   
  11/27 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Oct P 0.10% 0.60% -0.40% -  
                   
  11/27 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 23 Nov 221k 213k 227k 228k  
                   
  11/27 Continuing Claims 05:30 16 Nov 1691k 1640k 1695k 1697k  
                   
  11/27 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 24 Nov - 60.50 59.10 -  
                   
  11/27 Personal Income 07:00 Oct 0.30% 0.00% 0.30% -  
                   
  11/27 Personal Spending 07:00 Oct 0.30% 0.30% 0.20% -  
                   
  11/27 PCE Deflator MoM 07:00 Oct 0.30% 0.20% 0.00% -  
                   
  11/27 PCE Deflator YoY 07:00 Oct 1.40% 1.30% 1.30% -  
                   
  11/27 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 11:00 - - - - -  
                   
  11/28 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  11/29 No Data - - - - - -
                   
 
 
 
 
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