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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-14.5 (-03.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   97-23 (-01)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   3.034%  
 
 
 
 
Wednesday, November 28, 2018
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries slightly declining across all maturities.  10-Year treasury yield is at 3.0681, 1.09 bp increased from prior closing of 3.0572.

US equity futures rose as the 10-Year Treasury on a downward trend from prior closing ahead of Fed Chairman Powell’s speech at 9:00 AM (PT) today. The importance of his speech is now more highlighted and it will be parsed for any indications as the debate on the pace of monetary policy tightening in 2019 has intensified. There will be a few events that traders will tune into for the remainder of the week. The minutes from the FOMC meeting in November will be released tomorrow and President Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi at the G-20 summit in Argentina which starts on Friday. Today, the US Treasury will auction off $32 Billion of 7-Year notes at 10:00 AM (PT). Both Brent and WTI crude reversed gains from earlier this week.

In the economic calendar today, MBA Mortgage Applications rose 5.50% in last week from 0.10% decline in prior which was the first increase since October 19. Purchases were up 8.80% and refinances also increased 0.50%. Wholesale inventories MoM increased 0.70% from 0.60% revised prior vs. survey of 0.40%. This might trace back to the escalating tariff war between the US and China causing swings in demand for certain products. US GDP grew at 3.50% in third quarter which was in line with both prior and consensus data. Lastly, New Home Sales fell to 544k in October from 597k revised prior vs. estimated 575k.

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 1.09 bp.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  11/26 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Oct 0.18 0.24 0.17 0.14  
                   
  11/26 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Nov 24.50 17.60 29.40 -  
                   
  11/27 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Sep 0.40% 0.20% 0.30% 0.40%  
                   
  11/27 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Sep 0.20% 0.33% 0.09% -  
                   
  11/27 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Sep 5.20% 5.15% 5.49% 5.53%  
                   
  11/28 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 23 Nov - 5.50% -0.10% -  
                   
  11/28 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Oct P 0.40% 0.70% 0.40% 0.60%  
                   
  11/28 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 3Q S 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% -  
                   
  11/28 Personal Consumption 05:30 3Q S 3.90% 3.60% 4.00% -  
                   
  11/28 GDP Price Index 05:30 3Q S 1.70% 1.70% 1.70% -  
                   
  11/28 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 3Q S 1.60% 1.50% 1.60% -  
                   
  11/28 New Home Sales 07:00 Oct 575k 544k 553k 597k  
                   
  11/28 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Oct 4.00% -8.90% -5.50% 1.00%  
                   
  11/28 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Nov 15.00 14.00 15.00 -  
                   
  11/29 Personal Income 05:30 Oct 0.40% - 0.20% -  
                   
  11/29 Personal Spending 05:30 Oct 0.40% - 0.40% -  
                   
  11/29 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Oct 0.20% - 0.10% -  
                   
  11/29 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Oct 2.10% - 2.00% -  
                   
  11/29 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Oct 0.20% - 0.20% -  
                   
  11/29 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Oct 1.90% - 2.00% -  
                   
  11/29 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 24 Nov 220k - 224k -  
                   
  11/29 Continuing Claims 05:30 17 Nov - - - -  
                   
  11/29 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 25 Nov - - - -  
                   
  11/29 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Oct - - 0.50% -  
                   
  11/29 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Oct - - -3.40% -  
                   
  11/29 FOMC Meeting Minutes 11:00 8 Nov - - - -  
                   
  11/30 Chicago Purchasing Manager 06:45 Nov - - - -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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