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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-30.5 (+13)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   98-03.5 (+06.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.999%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, November 29, 2018
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries rallying across all maturities.  10-Year treasury yield is at 3.0189, 4.01 bps decreased from prior closing of 3.0590.

Although market displayed a moderate gain after Fed Chairman Powell’s speech and the strong Treasury 7-Year note auction, it closed seemingly unchanged from its opening yesterday. However, treasuries began rallying again overnight and extended its gain this morning from the speech. 10-Year Treasury yields briefly fell below 3 percent during overnight session based on Powells comment on interest rate being “just below” neutral level which was widely parsed by investors as a signal that there would be fewer rate hikes next year and the Fed might be nearing a pause. Contrarily, US stocks halted its rally from earlier this week as investors digested the slightly dovish statement from Fed Chair and awaited developments in the trade war as the G-20 summit kicks off tomorrow.

Both Personal Income and Personal Spending for October came in higher at 0.50% and 0.60% from their prior data of 0.20% and 0.40% which was downwardly revised to 0.20%, respectively. Initial Jobless Claims for last week rose to 234k vs survey of 220k from 224k prior which was the highest level since May. Continuing Claims also printed higher at 1710k vs survey of 1663k from 1660k revised prior. However, it’s worth noting that historically, we often see elevated volatility around holiday seasons. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort dropped to 60.60 from 61.30 prior and Pending Home Sales MoM also fell to 2.60% decline from 0.70% increase revised prior. The anticipated minutes from November FOMC meeting will be released at 11:00 AM (PT) today.

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 4.01 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  11/26 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Oct 0.18 0.24 0.17 0.14  
                   
  11/26 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Nov 24.50 17.60 29.40 -  
                   
  11/27 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Sep 0.40% 0.20% 0.30% 0.40%  
                   
  11/27 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Sep 0.20% 0.33% 0.09% -  
                   
  11/27 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Sep 5.20% 5.15% 5.49% 5.53%  
                   
  11/28 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 23 Nov - 5.50% -0.10% -  
                   
  11/28 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Oct P 0.40% 0.70% 0.40% 0.60%  
                   
  11/28 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 3Q S 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% -  
                   
  11/28 Personal Consumption 05:30 3Q S 3.90% 3.60% 4.00% -  
                   
  11/28 GDP Price Index 05:30 3Q S 1.70% 1.70% 1.70% -  
                   
  11/28 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 3Q S 1.60% 1.50% 1.60% -  
                   
  11/28 New Home Sales 07:00 Oct 575k 544k 553k 597k  
                   
  11/28 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Oct 4.00% -8.90% -5.50% 1.00%  
                   
  11/28 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Nov 15.00 14.00 15.00 -  
                   
  11/29 Personal Income 05:30 Oct 0.40% 0.50% 0.20% -  
                   
  11/29 Personal Spending 05:30 Oct 0.40% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20%  
                   
  11/29 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Oct 0.20% 0.20% 0.10% -  
                   
  11/29 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Oct 2.10% 2.00% 2.00% -  
                   
  11/29 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Oct 0.20% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  11/29 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Oct 1.90% 1.80% 2.00% 1.90%  
                   
  11/29 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 24 Nov 220k 234k 224k -  
                   
  11/29 Continuing Claims 05:30 17 Nov 1663k 1710k 1668k 1660k  
                   
  11/29 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 25 Nov - 60.60 61.30 -  
                   
  11/29 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Oct 0.50% -2.60% 0.50% 0.70%  
                   
  11/29 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Oct -2.80% -4.60% -3.40% -3.30%  
                   
  11/29 FOMC Meeting Minutes 11:00 8 Nov - - - -  
                   
  11/30 Chicago Purchasing Manager 06:45 Nov 58.50 - 58.40 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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