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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   96-20 (-25)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-19.5 (-14.5)  
 
  Support   2.411%  
 
  Resistance   2.287%  
 
 
 
 
Wednesday, November 30, 2016
 
 

The UST 10-Year yield is at 2.378% this morning after closing at 2.292% yesterday.

This morning, US Treasuries sold off following mostly positive economic news. MBA applications declined by -9.40% in the week ended November 25th after rising 5.50% the previous week. Purchases were down by 0.20% after rising 18.80% the week prior and refinances declined by 16.20%. ADP released the biggest employment gain since June, reporting a gain of 216K employees in the month of November.

Personal Spending had a modest increase of 0.30%, but demand is projected to steadily climb as personal income continues to rise. The Personal Income survey reported a 0.60% increase for the month of October, the biggest gain since April. The Chicago Purchasing Manager Index came in at 57.60 vs. 52.50 consensus, indicating businesses continue to expand after dipping to it’s the lowest 5 month reading of 50.60 in October.

The curve has bear-steepening with the UST 10-Year 8.6 bps up from prior closing.

 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  11/28 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Nov 2.00 10.20 -1.50 -  
                   
  11/29 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 3Q S 3.00% 3.20% 2.90% -  
                   
  11/29 Personal Consumption 05:30 3Q S 2.30% 2.80% 2.10% -  
                   
  11/29 GDP Price Index 05:30 3Q S 1.50% 1.40% 1.50% -  
                   
  11/29 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI MoM SA 06:00 Sep - 0.83% 0.61% 0.62%  
                   
  11/29 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 06:00 Sep - 5.46% 5.32% 5.15%  
                   
  11/29 Consumer Confidence Index 07:00 Nov 101.50 107.10 98.60 100.80  
                   
  11/30 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 25 Nov - -9.40% 5.50% -  
                   
  11/30 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Nov 170K 216K 147K 119K  
                   
  11/30 Personal Income 05:30 Oct 0.40% 0.60% 0.30% 0.40%  
                   
  11/30 Personal Spending 05:30 Oct 0.50% 0.30% 0.50% 0.70%  
                   
  11/30 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Oct 0.30% 0.20% 0.20% -  
                   
  11/30 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Oct 1.50% 1.40% 1.20% -  
                   
  11/30 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Oct 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% -  
                   
  11/30 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Oct 1.70% 1.70% 1.70% -  
                   
  11/30 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 11:00 - - - - -  
                   
  12/01 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Nov - - -39.10% -  
                   
  12/01 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 26 Nov 253K - 251K -  
                   
  12/01 Continuing Claims 05:30 19 Nov 2033K - 2043K -  
                   
  12/01 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 27 Nov - - 44.80 -  
                   
  12/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Nov F 53.90 - 53.90 -  
                   
  12/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Oct 0.60% - -0.40% -  
                   
  12/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Nov 52.00 - 51.90 -  
                   
  12/02 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Nov 180K - 161K -  
                   
  12/02 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Nov 4.90% - 4.90% -  
                   
  12/02 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Nov 0.20% - 0.40% -  
                   
  12/02 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Nov 2.80% - 2.80% -  
                   
  12/02 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Nov - - 62.80% -  
                   
  12/02 ISM New York 06:45 Nov - - 49.20 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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