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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-30 (+04.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   98-0.5 (+02)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.999%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, November 30, 2018
 
 
Market extended its rally this morning ahead of G-20 summit getting underway in Argentina today. 10-Year treasury yield is at 3.0115, 1.83 bps decreased from prior closing of 3.0298.

With 2 and 3 year treasuries staying nearly unchanged, remaining longer maturities continued its upward trend from yesterday and overnight session. All eyes and ears will turn to G-20 summit today where President Trump and Chinese President Xi are scheduled to have a dinner. Trump has sent some conflicting hints on his expectations for reaching a deal on trade but also threatened to impose more tariffs if the talk reaches an impasse. With recent data on Chinese economy showing worsened manufacturing activity, the importance of the talk between the two leaders is now more highlighted. Stocks are almost unchanged this morning with WTI crude decreasing under $50 a barrel.

It’s a very light day for data with Chicago Purchasing Manager numbers printing at 66.40 vs. 58.40 prior and vs. estimated 58.50. All segments of the report including business barometer, new orders, employment rose at a faster pace except for inventories, signaling expansion. There will be a couple events to look forward to next week; Fed Chairman Powell will testify on the economic outlook before Joint Economic Committee on Wednesday, Nonfarm payroll on Friday, and of course, we will find out more on the trade talk.

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 1.83 bps.

Have A Nice Weekend!
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  11/26 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Oct 0.18 0.24 0.17 0.14  
                   
  11/26 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Nov 24.50 17.60 29.40 -  
                   
  11/27 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Sep 0.40% 0.20% 0.30% 0.40%  
                   
  11/27 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Sep 0.20% 0.33% 0.09% -  
                   
  11/27 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Sep 5.20% 5.15% 5.49% 5.53%  
                   
  11/28 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 23 Nov - 5.50% -0.10% -  
                   
  11/28 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Oct P 0.40% 0.70% 0.40% 0.60%  
                   
  11/28 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 3Q S 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% -  
                   
  11/28 Personal Consumption 05:30 3Q S 3.90% 3.60% 4.00% -  
                   
  11/28 GDP Price Index 05:30 3Q S 1.70% 1.70% 1.70% -  
                   
  11/28 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 3Q S 1.60% 1.50% 1.60% -  
                   
  11/28 New Home Sales 07:00 Oct 575k 544k 553k 597k  
                   
  11/28 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Oct 4.00% -8.90% -5.50% 1.00%  
                   
  11/28 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Nov 15.00 14.00 15.00 -  
                   
  11/29 Personal Income 05:30 Oct 0.40% 0.50% 0.20% -  
                   
  11/29 Personal Spending 05:30 Oct 0.40% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20%  
                   
  11/29 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Oct 0.20% 0.20% 0.10% -  
                   
  11/29 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Oct 2.10% 2.00% 2.00% -  
                   
  11/29 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Oct 0.20% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  11/29 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Oct 1.90% 1.80% 2.00% 1.90%  
                   
  11/29 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 24 Nov 220k 234k 224k -  
                   
  11/29 Continuing Claims 05:30 17 Nov 1663k 1710k 1668k 1660k  
                   
  11/29 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 25 Nov - 60.60 61.30 -  
                   
  11/29 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Oct 0.50% -2.60% 0.50% 0.70%  
                   
  11/29 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Oct -2.80% -4.60% -3.40% -3.30%  
                   
  11/29 FOMC Meeting Minutes 11:00 8 Nov - - - -  
                   
  11/30 Chicago Purchasing Manager 06:45 Nov 58.50 66.40 58.40 -  
     
 
 
 
 
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