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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   96-3 (-15)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-9 (-9.5)  
 
  Support   2.461%  
 
  Resistance   2.291%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, December 1, 2016
 
 

The UST 10-Year yield is at 2.464% this morning after closing at 2.382% yesterday.

U.S. Treasuries continued to sell off this morning as oil prices surged, increasing potential for inflation.

In economic news, Initial Jobless Claims came in higher than expected at 268K, an increased of 17K from the previous week. Despite the increase, unemployment claims have remained below the 300K mark for the 91st consecutive week, the longest stretch since 1970. Continuing claims rose by 38K to 2081K with the largest claim increase of 14,214 in California. Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll report should bring a more complete picture of job market in November as payroll gains are projected to have increased from the previous month.

The Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 54.10, the highest levels since October 2015. American Consumer Sentiment gauge had a slight increase to 44.90 for the week ended November 27th as the view on an improving economy and purchasing optimism rose by 0.30 and 0.10, respectively, and the view on personal finances remained unchanged.

The curve has bear-steepening with the UST 10-Year 8.2 bps up from prior closing.

 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  11/28 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Nov 2.00 10.20 -1.50 -  
                   
  11/29 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 3Q S 3.00% 3.20% 2.90% -  
                   
  11/29 Personal Consumption 05:30 3Q S 2.30% 2.80% 2.10% -  
                   
  11/29 GDP Price Index 05:30 3Q S 1.50% 1.40% 1.50% -  
                   
  11/29 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI MoM SA 06:00 Sep - 0.83% 0.61% 0.62%  
                   
  11/29 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 06:00 Sep - 5.46% 5.32% 5.15%  
                   
  11/29 Consumer Confidence Index 07:00 Nov 101.50 107.10 98.60 100.80  
                   
  11/30 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 25 Nov - -9.40% 5.50% -  
                   
  11/30 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Nov 170K 216K 147K 119K  
                   
  11/30 Personal Income 05:30 Oct 0.40% 0.60% 0.30% 0.40%  
                   
  11/30 Personal Spending 05:30 Oct 0.50% 0.30% 0.50% 0.70%  
                   
  11/30 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Oct 0.30% 0.20% 0.20% -  
                   
  11/30 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Oct 1.50% 1.40% 1.20% -  
                   
  11/30 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Oct 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% -  
                   
  11/30 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Oct 1.70% 1.70% 1.70% -  
                   
  11/30 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 11:00 - - - - -  
                   
  12/01 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Nov - -13.00% -39.10% -  
                   
  12/01 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 26 Nov 253K 268K 251K -  
                   
  12/01 Continuing Claims 05:30 19 Nov 2033K 2081K 2043K -  
                   
  12/01 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 27 Nov - 44.90 44.80 -  
                   
  12/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Nov F 53.90 54.10 53.90 -  
                   
  12/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Oct 0.60% 0.50% -0.40% 0.00%  
                   
  12/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Nov 52.50 53.20 51.90 -  
                   
  12/02 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Nov 180K - 161K -  
                   
  12/02 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Nov 4.90% - 4.90% -  
                   
  12/02 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Nov 0.20% - 0.40% -  
                   
  12/02 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Nov 2.80% - 2.80% -  
                   
  12/02 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Nov - - 62.80% -  
                   
  12/02 ISM New York 06:45 Nov - - 49.20 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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