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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-28 (-08)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   98-03.5 (-01.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.988%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, December 03, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are moderately lower across the curve this morning from Friday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 3.021% after closing at 2.989% prior.

Treasuries fell overnight and opened weaker across all maturities after the U.S. and China declared a truce in their trade war over the weekend. Stocks are rallying as the concerns over the state of global growth calmed. Elsewhere, oil prices surged on optimism that producers will trim output as Saudi Arabia and Russia extended their pact to manage the market ahead of the OPEC meeting later this week. In Fed news, there are several officials speaking today including Fed Vice Chairman Clarida and Quarles, New York Fed President Williams and Dallas Fed President Kaplan. Then on Wednesday, Fed Chairman Powell will testify on the economic outlook before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.

On the economic calendar, we received the final reading of the November Markit US Manufacturing PMI which ticked back slightly lower to 55.30 from 55.40 prior. We also received the October Construction Spending which fell 0.10% versus an expected 0.40% increase per consensus; prior month’s release was downwardly revised to a 0.10% decline. ISM Manufacturing improved to 59.30 in November from an unrevised 57.70 prior. ISM Employment also rose from 56.80 to 58.40 and ISM New Orders rose to 62.10 from 57.40 prior; ISM Prices Paid came in lower than expected at 60.70 versus 70.00 per consensus. Later today the Wards Total Vehicle Sales report will be available which is expected to drop from 17.50 million in October to 17.20 million in November.

The curve has bear-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield up 3.2 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  12/03 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Nov F 55.40 55.30 55.40 -  
                   
  12/03 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Oct 0.40% -0.10% 0.00% -0.10%  
                   
  12/03 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Nov 57.50 59.30 57.70 -  
                   
  12/03 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Nov 70.00 60.70 71.60 -  
                   
  12/04 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  12/05 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 30 Nov - - 5.50% -  
                   
  12/05 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Nov 195k - 227k -  
                   
  12/05 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 3Q F 2.30% - 2.20% -  
                   
  12/05 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 3Q F 1.00% - 1.20% -  
                   
  12/05 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Nov F 54.40 - 54.40 -  
                   
  12/05 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Nov F - - 54.40 -  
                   
  12/05 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 11:00 - - - - -  
                   
  12/06 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Nov - - 153.60% -  
                   
  12/06 Trade Balance 05:30 Oct -$55.00b - -$54.00b -  
                   
  12/06 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 1 Dec 225k - 234k -  
                   
  12/06 Continuing Claims 05:30 24 Nov 1695k - 1710k -  
                   
  12/06 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 2 Dec - - 60.60 -  
                   
  12/06 Factory Orders 07:00 Oct -2.00% - 0.70% -  
                   
  12/06 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Oct F -2.40% - -4.40% -  
                   
  12/06 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Oct F 0.10% - 0.10% -  
                   
  12/07 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Nov 198k - 250k -  
                   
  12/07 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Nov 3.70% - 3.70% -  
                   
  12/07 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Nov 0.30% - 0.20% -  
                   
  12/07 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Nov 3.10% - 3.10% -  
                   
  12/07 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Nov 62.90% - 62.90% -  
                   
  12/07 Wholesale Inventories MoM 07:00 Oct F 0.70% - 0.70% -  
                   
  12/07 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 07:00 Oct - - 0.20% -  
                   
  12/07 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Dec P 97.00 - 97.50 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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