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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   102-11 (+01.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-02 (+03)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.829%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, December 10, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are slightly lower across the curve this morning from Friday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.849% after closing at 2.847% prior.

Treasuries were mixed overnight while U.S. stock futures struggled to advance as uncertainty over global growth and rising tensions between U.S. and China lingered. Sentiment in financial markets has been fragile in recent weeks as investors gauge whether the central bank will slow its rate hike path amid ongoing trade concerns. In addition to the escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, China’s vice foreign minister summoned ambassadors from U.S. and Canada over the weekend in protest of the Huawei CFO’s arrest. Elsewhere, U.K. Prime Minister May is said to delay a key parliamentary Brexit vote to avoid a huge defeat as fears about a no-deal Brexit resurfaced; the pound weakened to its lowest level since June 2017.

A fairly quiet calendar week kicked off with only the JOLTS Job Openings for the month of October which rose to 7079 from a downwardly revised 6960 in September. Tuesday’s calendar will feature the November NFIB Small Business Optimism and the November PPI data, and Wednesday will feature the November CPI reports as well as the November Monthly Budget Statement. On Thursday we will have the November Import and Export Price Indices, and on Friday we will have the Retail Sales reports for the month of November.

The curve has bear-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield up 0.2 bp from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  12/10 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Oct 7100 7079 7009 6960  
                   
  12/11 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Nov 107.00 - 107.40 -  
                   
  12/11 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Nov 0.00% - 0.60% -  
                   
  12/11 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Nov 2.50% - 2.90% -  
                   
  12/12 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 7 Dec - - 2.00% -  
                   
  12/12 CPI MoM 05:30 Nov 0.00% - 0.30% -  
                   
  12/12 CPI YoY 05:30 Nov 2.20% - 2.50% -  
                   
  12/12 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Nov -$196.00b - -$100.50b -  
                   
  12/05 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Nov -1.00% - 0.50% -  
                   
  12/05 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Nov 1.30% - 3.50% -  
                   
  12/05 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Nov -0.30% - 0.40% -  
                   
  12/06 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Nov - - 3.10% -  
                   
  12/06 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 8 Dec 227k - 231k -  
                   
  12/06 Continuing Claims 05:30 1 Dec 1649k - 1631k -  
                   
  12/06 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 9 Dec - - 60.30 -  
                   
  12/14 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Nov 0.10% - 0.80% -  
                   
  12/14 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Nov 0.30% - 0.10% -  
                   
  12/14 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Nov 78.6% - 78.40% -  
                   
  12/14 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Dec P 54.60 - 54.70 -  
                   
  12/14 Business Inventories 07:00 Oct 0.60% - 0.30% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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