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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-07.5 (-01)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-17 (-02.5)  
 
  Support   2.913%  
 
  Resistance   1.697%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, December 10, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Climb on Potential Delay of US Tariffs on Chinese Goods
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries selling - off across all maturities. 10-year Treasury yield is at 1.8451, 2.61 bps increased from prior closing of 1.8190.

US equity index futures fell this morning as investors remained skeptical despite of the news that the US reportedly plans to delay the fresh tariffs scheduled for December 15th implementation on Chinese goods. Treasuries edged lower on the news as well. Trades developments continued to dominate sentiment on the markets this morning and somewhat overshadow the policy decisions this week which will be on Wednesday by the Fed and on Thursday by ECB. The latest update on the trade front is that US negotiators have asked China to commit to some agricultural purchases up front while China wants the purchases to be proportional to the tariffs that the US will cut back. Elsewhere, WTI crude edged lower, trading slightly below $59 a barrel. In the economic calendar today, NFIB Small Business Optimism in November printed 104.70 vs 102.40 prior and 103.00 consensus. As the optimism grows, challenges in labor market are now faced by US small business owners where they are forced to increase pay in coming months due to the tight labor market. Nonfarm Productivity came in slightly below consensus of -0.10% at -0.20%.  The FOMC meeting kicks off today and will announce its interest rate decision tomorrow at 11:00 AM (PT), followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Powell at 11:30 AM (PT). Later today, the US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $24 billion of 10-year note at 10:00 AM (PT).

The curve has bear-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield up 2.61 bps.

 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  12/09 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  12/10 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Nov 103.00 104.70 102.40 -  
                   
  12/10 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 3Q F -0.10% -0.20% -0.30% -  
                   
  12/11 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 6 Dec - - -9.20% -  
                   
  12/11 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 05:30 Nov - - 0.90% 1.10%  
                   
  12/11 CPI MoM 05:30 Nov 0.20% - 0.40% -  
                   
  12/11 CPI YoY 05:30 Nov 2.00% - 1.80% -  
                   
  12/11 CPI Index NSA 05:30 Nov 257.215 - 257.346 -  
                   
  12/11 CPI Core Index SA 05:30 Nov 265.476 - 265.011 -  
                   
  12/11 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 11 Dec 1.75% - 1.75% -  
                   
  12/11 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 11 Dec 1.50% - 1.50% -  
                   
  12/11 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Nov -$206.2b - -$134.5b -  
                   
  12/12 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Nov 0.20% - 0.40% -  
                   
  12/12 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Nov 1.20% - 1.10% -  
                   
  12/12 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 7 Dec 215k - 203k -  
                   
  12/12 Continuing Claims 05:30 30 Nov 1678k - 1693k -  
                   
  12/12 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 8 Dec - - 61.70 -  
                   
  12/13 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Nov 0.20% - -0.50% -  
                   
  12/13 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Nov -1.20% - -3.00% -  
                   
  12/13 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Nov 0.10% - -0.10% -  
                   
  12/13 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Nov - - -2.20% -  
                   
  12/13 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Nov 0.50% - 0.30% -
                   
 
 
 
 
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