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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

December 11, 2014
10-YEAR NOTES   100-17 (-06) 2.190%
FN 3.5% COUPON   103-30.5 (-02.5)
SUPPORT   2.42%
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November’s Retail Sales outpaced market expectations, posting the largest advance in eight months, up +0.7% vs. +0.5% prior revised (consensus +0.4%). U.S. Import Prices declined -1.5% vs. -1.2% in October; both (MoM) price declines were largely driven by declining fuel prices which were down -6.7% in November and -6.0% in October. The price index for U.S. Exports fell -1.0% in November vs. -0.9% prior for the largest monthly decline since April’s -1.0% drop. Initial Jobless Claims declined more than expected at 294K vs. 297K prior (consensus 297K) and continuing claims increased 2514K vs. 2362K prior (consensus 2344K). Business Inventories were up +0.3% in September with sales unchanged, and expectations for October are for a +0.2% increase. The curve has bear flattened with 2s10s down -0.9 bps.

This Week's Events:

12/11 Retail Sales MoM 05:30 November 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.5%
12/11 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 November -1.8% -1.5% -1.3% -1.2%
12/11 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 November -2.6% -2.3% -1.8% -1.7%
12/11 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 December 6 297K 294K 297K -
12/11 Continuing Claims 05:30 November 29 2344K 2514K 2362K 2372K
12/11 Business Inventories 07:00 October 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% -
12/12 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 November -0.1% - 0.2% -
12/12 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 November 1.4% - 1.5% -



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