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Market Commentary



 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-13 (+07.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-22 (+03)  
 
  Support   2.913%  
 
  Resistance   1.697%  
 
 
 
 
  Wednesday, December 11, 2019
 
 

Treasury Yields Lower Ahead of Rate Decision

 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries ending higher across all maturities. 10-year Treasury yield is at 1.8225, 1.91 bps decreased from prior closing of 1.8416.

Stocks drifted and Treasuries inched higher this morning as investors awaited this year’s final rate decision by the Fed. The dollar was steady after CPI readings remained subdued in November. The S&P 500 were little changed but the Dow slipped as Boeing and Home Depot shares dropped this morning. The Fed is widely expected to hold the rates steady this time so the focus will be on the press conference with Fed Chair Powell for signals that the central bank will keep liquidity high and overnight lending rates steady. At the last meeting, the Fed announced that it would extend overnight funding operations through January and buy Treasury bills through second quarter of 2020. On the trade front, there haven’t been any significant developments as the effective date of new tariffs on Chinese goods quickly approaches. Elsewhere, WTI crude slipped, trading slightly above $59 a barrel.

MBA Mortgage Applications rose 3.80% last week after falling 9.20% in the prior week. Purchases declined 0.40% and refinances increased 8.70% after rising 0.90% and falling 15.60% in the prior week, respectively. The headline CPI in November came in higher than consensus of 0.20% at 0.30%, a 0.10% decline from prior reading of 0.40%. The core came in line with both consensus and prior of 0.20%. Later today, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision at 11:00 AM (PT), followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Powell at 11:30 AM (PT). Monthly Budget Statement for November will also be released at 11:00 AM (PT).

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 1.91 bps.

 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  12/09 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  12/10 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Nov 103.00 104.70 102.40 -  
                   
  12/10 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 3Q F -0.10% -0.20% -0.30% -  
                   
  12/11 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 6 Dec - 3.80% -9.20% -  
                   
  12/11 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 05:30 Nov - 1.10% 0.90% 1.10%  
                   
  12/11 CPI MoM 05:30 Nov 0.20% 0.30% 0.40% -  
                   
  12/11 CPI YoY 05:30 Nov 2.00% 2.10% 1.80% -  
                   
  12/11 CPI Index NSA 05:30 Nov 257.213 257.208 257.346 -  
                   
  12/11 CPI Core Index SA 05:30 Nov 265.476 265.620 265.011 -  
                   
  12/11 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 11 Dec 1.75% - 1.75% -  
                   
  12/11 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 11 Dec 1.50% - 1.50% -  
                   
  12/11 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Nov -$206.2b - -$100.5b -  
                   
  12/12 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Nov 0.20% - 0.40% -  
                   
  12/12 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Nov 1.30% - 1.10% -  
                   
  12/12 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 7 Dec 215k - 203k -  
                   
  12/12 Continuing Claims 05:30 30 Nov 1678k - 1693k -  
                   
  12/12 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 8 Dec - - 61.70 -  
                   
  12/13 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Nov 0.20% - -0.50% -  
                   
  12/13 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Nov -1.20% - -3.00% -  
                   
  12/13 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Nov 0.10% - -0.10% -  
                   
  12/13 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Nov - - -2.20% -  
                   
  12/13 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Nov 0.50% - 0.30% -
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as an advice for trading or investment purposes in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice.  
 
 
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