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Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-27 (-25.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-21 (-03)  
 
  Support   2.913%  
 
  Resistance   1.697%  
 
 
 
 
  Thursday, December 12, 2019
 
 

Treasury Yields Climb on Trade Optimism

 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries selling-off across all maturities. 10-year Treasury yield is at 1.8590, 6.76 bps increased from prior closing of 1.7914.

US stock index futures turned lower earlier this morning on disappointing labor data and European bonds rose after the ECB announced that it would maintain its bond buying program and keep interest rates low until its inflation goal is reached. Yesterday, the Fed kept rates unchanged and signaled hikes in 2020 are unlikely to come. Their outlook was interpreted as mildly bullish by the market participants. Christine Lagarde hosted her first press conference as president of the ECB this morning and said the euro zone’s economic slowdown is showing tentative signs of a halt. Trade will again be in the focus for the rest of the week as President Trump is expected to meet his trade team later today with Sunday’s deadline for higher tariffs quickly approaching. Chinese officials are reportedly expecting a delay to the measure to reach an interim deal. Stocks jumped and Treasuries sharply slid following President Trump’s tweet saying both sides want the deal done and they are getting very close to a big deal.

Jobless Claims surged to 252k from 203k prior after dropping to a seven-month low in prior, marking the highest level since Sept 2017. However, underlying conditions in the labor market remain strong with hiring momentum suggesting further tightening. Continuing Claims, on the other hand, came in below consensus of 1678k at 1667k, a 31k decline from revised prior of 1698k. The headline PPI in November printed 0.00% vs. 0.40% prior and 0.20% consensus while the core reading dropped to -0.20% from 0.30% prior vs. 0.20% consensus. Lastly, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort slightly edged higher to 62.10 from 61.70 prior. Later today, the US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $40 billion of 4-week bills and $35 billion of 8-week bills at 8:30 AM (PT), and 30-year bonds reopening at 10:00 AM (PT).

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 6.76 bps.

 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  12/09 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  12/10 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Nov 103.00 104.70 102.40 -  
                   
  12/10 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 3Q F -0.10% -0.20% -0.30% -  
                   
  12/11 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 6 Dec - 3.80% -9.20% -  
                   
  12/11 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 05:30 Nov - 1.10% 0.90% 1.10%  
                   
  12/11 CPI MoM 05:30 Nov 0.20% 0.30% 0.40% -  
                   
  12/11 CPI YoY 05:30 Nov 2.00% 2.10% 1.80% -  
                   
  12/11 CPI Index NSA 05:30 Nov 257.213 257.208 257.346 -  
                   
  12/11 CPI Core Index SA 05:30 Nov 265.476 265.620 265.011 -  
                   
  12/11 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 11 Dec 1.75% - 1.75% -  
                   
  12/11 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 11 Dec 1.50% - 1.50% -  
                   
  12/11 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Nov -$206.2b - -$100.5b -  
                   
  12/12 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Nov 0.20% 0.00% 0.40% -  
                   
  12/12 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Nov 1.30% 1.10% 1.10% -  
                   
  12/12 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 7 Dec 214k 252k 203k -  
                   
  12/12 Continuing Claims 05:30 30 Nov 1678k 1667k 1693k 1698k  
                   
  12/12 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 8 Dec - 62.10 61.70 -  
                   
  12/13 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Nov 0.20% - -0.50% -  
                   
  12/13 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Nov -1.20% - -3.00% -  
                   
  12/13 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Nov 0.10% - -0.10% -  
                   
  12/13 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Nov - - -2.20% -  
                   
  12/13 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Nov 0.50% - 0.30% -
                   
 
 
 
 
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