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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   95-27.5 (+01)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-04.5 (-01)  
 
  Support   2.524%  
 
  Resistance   2.338%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, December 13, 2016
 
 

The UST 10-Year yield is at 2.450% this morning after closing at 2.472% yesterday.

Today marks the first day of the much anticipated 2-day FOMC meeting where the Fed is largely expected to raise interest rates. If increased, this would be the second rate hike since December 2015.

This morning's economic data releases were mostly positive, starting with the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index coming in higher than expected at 98.40 vs. 94.90 in October. According to the data, 11.00% of employers believe this is a great time to expand, 15.00% expect more job creations and 12.00% forecast a better economy. The Import Price Index MoM fell for the first time in 3-months to -0.30% vs. the previously revised 0.40%; this is largely due to the decline in the cost of fuel. The Import Price Index YoY, however, showed overall improvement, coming in at -0.10% vs. -0.30% previously.

Post-election mortgage rates have been consistently increasing over the past 6 weeks to levels unseen since October of 2014. The average 15-Year mortgage rate has risen by 58 bps and is currently at 3.360% and 30-Year mortgage rates have risen by 66 bps, with an average rate of 4.130%.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year 2.2 bps down from prior closing.

 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  12/12 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Nov -$133.30 B - -$44.20 B -  
                   
  12/13 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Nov -0.40% -0.30% 0.50% 0.40%  
                   
  12/13 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Nov 0.00% -0.10% -0.20% -0.30%  
                   
  12/14 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 9 Dec - - -0.70% -  
                   
  12/14 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Nov 0.30% - 0.80% -  
                   
  12/14 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Nov 0.10% - 0.00% -  
                   
  12/14 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Nov 0.90% - 0.80% -  
                   
  12/14 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Nov 75.10% - 75.30% -  
                   
  12/14 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Nov -0.30% - 0.00% -  
                   
  12/14 Business Inventories 07:00 Oct -0.10% - 0.10% -  
                   
  12/14 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 14 Dec 0.75% - 0.50% -  
                   
  12/14 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 14 Dec 0.50% - 0.25% -  
                   
  12/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Dec - - 1.50 -  
                   
  12/15 CPI MoM 05:30 Nov - - 0.40% -  
                   
  12/15 CPI YoY 05:30 Nov - - 1.60% -  
                   
  12/15 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 05:30 Nov - - 0.90% -  
                   
  12/15 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 10 Dec - - - -  
                   
  12/15 Continuing Claims 05:30 3 Dec - - - -  
                   
  12/15 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 11 Dec - - - -  
                   
  12/16 Housing Starts 05:30 Nov - - 1323K -  
                   
  12/16 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Nov - - 25.50% -  
                   
  12/16 Building Permits 05:30 Nov - - 1229K 1260K  
                   
  12/16 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Nov - - 0.30% 2.90%  
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as trading or investment advice in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice  
 
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