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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   94-29.5 (-04.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   101-10 (-04)  
 
  Support   2.638%  
 
  Resistance   2.338%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, December 15, 2016
 
 

The UST 10-Year yield is at 2.566% this morning after closing at 2.572% yesterday.

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve officially announced the anticipated 0.250% raise in interest rates. Shortly after, the markets began a steep sell-off, however, the reaction was not solely due to the 0.250% hike in rates, as this was widely anticipated, but largely due to the “Dot-Plot's” projections for 3 additional rate hikes in 2017.

Plenty of economic data released this morning. The U.S. Current Account Balance, which measures the nation's debt to other countries, dropped by $5.30 Billion to -$113.00 Billion. The current account deficit accounted for 2.40% of GDP in the 3rd quarter. Empire Manufacturing Index rose to 9.00 from 1.50 in November. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose for the 4th consecutive month by 0.20% in November, boosting the YoY Index to 1.70%.

Initial Jobless Claims dropped for the second week to 254K in the week ended December 10th; while Continuing Claims increased by 11K to 2018K in the week ended December 3rd. Claims have now remained below the 300K mark for the 93rd consecutive week. The Consumer Comfort Survey rose to 45.50 from 45.10. Following the optimistic data, the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index rose to 21.50, the highest levels since Nov. 2014. Lastly, the Markit US Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.20, the highest level since March 2015.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year 0.6 bp down from prior closing.

 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  12/12 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Nov -$133.30 B - -$44.20 B -  
                   
  12/13 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Nov -0.40% -0.30% 0.50% 0.40%  
                   
  12/13 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Nov 0.00% -0.10% -0.20% -0.30%  
                   
  12/14 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 9 Dec - -4.00% -0.70% -  
                   
  12/14 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Nov 0.30% 0.10% 0.80% 0.60%  
                   
  12/14 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Nov 0.10% 0.40% 0.00% -  
                   
  12/14 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Nov 0.90% 1.30% 0.80% -  
                   
  12/14 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Nov 75.10% 75.00% 75.30% 75.40%  
                   
  12/14 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Nov -0.30% -0.40% 0.00% 0.10%  
                   
  12/14 Business Inventories 07:00 Oct -0.10% -0.20% 0.10% 0.00%  
                   
  12/14 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 14 Dec 0.75% - 0.50% -  
                   
  12/14 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 14 Dec 0.50% - 0.25% -  
                   
  12/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Dec 4.00 9.00 1.50 -  
                   
  12/15 CPI MoM 05:30 Nov 0.20% 0.20% 0.40% -  
                   
  12/15 CPI YoY 05:30 Nov 1.70% 1.70% 1.60% -  
                   
  12/15 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 05:30 Nov - 0.50% 0.90% -  
                   
  12/15 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 10 Dec 255K 254K 258K -  
                   
  12/15 Continuing Claims 05:30 3 Dec 2003K 2018K 2005K 2007K  
                   
  12/15 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 11 Dec - 45.50 45.10 -  
                   
  12/16 Housing Starts 05:30 Nov 1230K - 1323K -  
                   
  12/16 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Nov -7.00% - 25.50% -  
                   
  12/16 Building Permits 05:30 Nov - - 1229K 1260K  
                   
  12/16 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Nov - - 0.30% 2.90%  
                   
 
 
 
 
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