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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-31 (+12.5) 2.253%  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   103-02.5 (+08)  
 
  Support   2.370%  
 
  Resistance   2.130%  
 
 
 
 
Today's Blurb Thursday, December 17, 2015
 
 
        Initial Jobless Claims fell more than forecast last week, at 271K vs. 282K prior (consensus 275K) with the four-week moving average moving lower to 270,500 vs. 270,750. Continuing Claims fell to 2238K vs. 2243K prior (consensus 2200K). Yesterday Yellen sent a strong message to markets clarifying the Fed's view on current and future economic conditions, May Higher Rates Be With You. The FOMC raised the overnight target rate range from 0.00%-0.25% to 0.25%-0.50% for the first time in 58 meetings along with raising the required rate on excess reserves to 0.50%. In their statement the committee cited "considerable" improvement in labor market conditions this year, "confidence" in inflation rising to their 2.00% goal in the medium term, and signaled a gradual approach to additional Fed Funds Rate increases in the coming year; a seemingly dovish hike. The Fed modestly lowered their Dot Plot projections with the average forecast for the 2016 year end Fed Funds Rate down from 1.48% to 1.29%, and the average forecast for 2017 year end down from 2.64% to 2.41%. Of the total 119 historical Fed hikes only three times (including yesterday) has nominal GDP been under 5.00%, one of which the Fed had to quickly reverse their decision as economic conditions did not meet their expectations. Treasuries are mixed across the curve this morning, with yield on the 2-Year unchanged and 10-Year pushing higher and the curve steepening.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  12/14 No Data - -  -  - - -  
                   
  12/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Dec  -7.00  -4.59 -10.74 -  
                   
  12/15 CPI MoM 05:30 Nov    0.00%   0.00%   0.20% -  
                   
  12/15 CPI YoY 05:30 Nov    0.40%   0.50%   0.20% -  
                   
  12/15 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 05:30 Nov   -   1.60%   2.10%  2.40%  
                   
  12/15 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Dec   63.00  -  62.00 -  
                   
  12/16 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 Dec 11   -   -1.10%    1.20%  -  
                   
  12/16 Housing Starts 05:30 Nov  1130K  1173K  1060K 1062K  
                   
  12/16 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Nov    6.60%  10.50%    -11.00% -12.00%  
                   
  12/16 Building Permits 05:30 Nov   1150K  1289K  1150K 1161K  
                   
  12/16 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Nov   -1.00%   11.00%   4.10%   5.10%  
                   
  12/16 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Nov   -0.20%  -0.60%   -0.20% -0.40%  
                   
  12/16 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Nov    77.40%  77.00%     77.50% -  
                   
  12/16 FOMC Rate Decision(Upper Bound) 11:00 Dec 16  0.50% -  0.25% -  
                   
  12/16 FOMC Rate Decision(Lower Bound) 11:00 Dec 16  0.25% -  0.00% -  
                   
  12/17 Current Account Balance 05:30 3Q -$118.60 B -$124.10 B -$109.70 B -$111.10 B  
                   
  12/17 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 Dec 12 275K 271K 282K -  
                   
  12/17 Continuing Claims 05:30 Dec 5 2200K 2238K 2243K 2245K  
                   
  12/17 Leading Index 07:00 Nov  0.10% 0.40%    0.60% -  
                   
  12/18 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Dec 2.00 -  1.00 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as trading or investment advice in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice  
 
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