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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   102-11 (+01.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-02.5 (+03.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.821%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, December 18, 2018
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries extending its rally10-Year treasury yield is at 2.8642, 1.08 bps decreased from prior closing of 2.8570.

US stocks advanced this morning; mainly led by technology and health companies. Notably, the S&P 500 Index climbed from a 14 month low. Treasuries also rallied overnight from a disappointing keynote speech by Chinese President Xi where he didn’t offer any new commitments toward stimulating the world’s second largest economy. The final FOMC meeting of 2018 will kick off today and the rate decision will be announced tomorrow at 11:00 AM (PT), followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Powell. While another rate hike is a general consensus, President Trump referred a rate hike this time “yet another mistake” earlier this morning and many stock investors are pinning their hopes on the Fed taking a dovish turn.

In the economic calendar today, Both Housing Starts and Building Permits rose much more than expected, printing 1256k and 1328k vs. 1226k and 1260k consensus, respectively. However, whether this surge in housing market is sustainable or not is uncertain as it stems from a strong multifamily market which has been notoriously volatile.

The curve has bull-steepened with UST 10-Year yield down 1.08 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  12/17 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Dec 20.00 10.90 23.30 -  
                   
  12/17 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Dec 60.00 56.00 60.00 -  
                   
  12/17 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 Oct - - -$29.10b -  
                   
  12/17 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 Oct - - $30.80b -  
                   
  12/18 Housing Starts 05:30 Nov 1226k 1256k 1228k 1217k  
                   
  12/18 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Nov -0.20% 3.20% 1.50% -1.60%  
                   
  12/18 Building Permits 05:30 Nov 1260k 1328k 1263k 1265k  
                   
  12/18 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Nov -0.40% 5.00% -0.60% -0.40%  
                   
  12/19 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 14 Dec - - 1.60% -  
                   
  12/19 Existing Home Sales 07:00 Nov 5.20m - 5.22m -  
                   
  12/19 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 Nov -0.40% - 1.40% -  
                   
  12/19 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 19 Dec 2.50% - 2.25% -  
                   
  12/19 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 19 Dec 2.25% - 2.00% -  
                   
  12/20 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Dec 15.00 - 12.90 -  
                   
  12/20 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 15 Dec 215k - 206k -  
                   
  12/20 Continuing Claims 05:30 8 Dec 1663k - 1661k -  
                   
  12/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 16 Dec - - 59.40 -  
                   
  12/20 Leading Index 07:00 Nov 0.00% - 0.10% -  
                   
  12/21 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 3Q T 3.50% - 3.50% -  
                   
  12/21 Personal Consumption 05:30 3Q T 3.60% - 3.60% -  
                   
  12/21 GDP Price Index 05:30 3Q T 1.70% - 1.70% -  
                   
  12/21 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 3Q T 1.50% - 1.50% -  
                   
  12/21 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Nov P 1.60% - -4.30% -  
                   
  12/21 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Nov P 0.30% - 0.20% -  
                   
  12/21 Personal Income 07:00 Nov 0.30% - 0.50% -  
                   
  12/21 Personal Spending 07:00 Nov 0.30% - 0.60% -  
                   
  12/21 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Dec F 97.50 - 97.50 -  
                   
  12/21 PCE Deflator MoM 07:00 Nov 0.00% - 0.20% -  
                   
  12/21 PCE Deflator YoY 07:00 Nov 1.80% - 2.00% -  
                   
  12/21 PCE Core MoM 07:00 Nov 0.20% - 0.10% -  
                   
  12/21 PCE Core YoY 07:00 Nov 1.90% - 1.80% -  
                   
  12/21 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Dec 13.00 - 15.00 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as trading or investment advice in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice  
 
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