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Market Commentary



 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-11.5 (-02.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-19 (-01)  
 
  Support   2.808%  
 
  Resistance   1.697%  
 
 
 
 
  Thursday, December 19, 2019
 
 

Treasury Yields Climb as Stocks Rise to Record High

 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries edging lower across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 1.9310, 1.41 bps increased from prior closing of 1.9169.

US stocks slightly rose this morning, surprisingly not affected by the news of President Trump’s impeachment. Last night, President Trump was impeached by the House of Representatives for two articles; abuse of power and obstruction of Congress, making him the third president in US history to be impeached by the House. Trade between the US and China still remains as the main focus as market shrugged off the impeachment news. Treasuries slipped as the monetary decisions around the globe rolled out. Sweden raised its benchmark to end 5-year of sub-zero interest rates while all other central banks kept their interest rates steady. Elsewhere, WTI crude slightly edged higher, hovering around $61 a barrel.

Current Account Deficit in the third quarter narrowed to $124.10 billion from revised prior of $125.20 billion, however, worse than consensus of $122.00 billion. Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook tumbled to 0.30 in December from prior of 10.40 vs. 8.00 consensus. Also, the claims report continued to show weakness from the week prior. Initial Jobless Claims came in above consensus of 225k at 234k and Continuing Claims printed 1722k vs. 1676k consensus. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort lowered to 61.10 from 62.10 prior but Leading Index in November climbed 0.20% to 0.00% from revised prior of -0.20%. Lastly, Existing Home Sales slipped in November to 5.35 million from downwardly revised prior reading of 5.44 million. Later today, the US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $35 billion of 4-week bills and $35 billion of 8-week bills at 8:30 AM (PT), and $15 billion of 5-year TIPS reopening at 10:00 AM (PT).

The curve has bear steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 1.41 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  12/16 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Dec 4.00 3.50 2.90 -  
                   
  12/16 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Dec 70.00 76.00 70.00 71.00  
                   
  12/16 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 Oct - $32.50b $49.50b -  
                   
  12/16 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 Oct - -$48.30b -$37.60b -$38.10b  
                   
  12/17 Housing Starts 05:30 Nov 1345k 1365k 1314k 1323k  
                   
  12/17 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Nov 2.40% 3.20% 3.80% 4.50%  
                   
  12/17 Building Permits 05:30 Nov 1410k 1482k 1461k -  
                   
  12/17 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Nov -3.50% 1.40% 5.00% -  
                   
  12/17 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Nov 77.40% 77.30% 76.70% 76.60%  
                   
  12/17 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Oct 7009 7267 7024 7032  
                   
  12/18 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 13 Dec - -5.00% 3.80% -  
                   
  12/19 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Dec 8.00 0.30 10.40 -  
                   
  12/19 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 14 Dec 225k 234k 252k -  
                   
  12/19 Continuing Claims 05:30 7 Dec 1676k 1722k 1667k 1671k  
                   
  12/19 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 15 Dec - 61.10 62.10 -  
                   
  12/19 Leading Index 07:00 Nov 0.10% 0.00% -0.10% -0.20%  
                   
  12/19 Existing Home Sales 07:00 Nov 5.44m 5.35m 5.46m 5.44m  
                   
  12/19 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 Nov -0.40% -1.70% 1.90% 1.50%  
                   
  12/20 Personal Consumption 05:30 3Q T 2.90% - 2.90% -  
                   
  12/20 GDP Price Index 05:30 3Q T 1.80% - 1.80% -  
                   
  12/20 Personal Income 07:00 Nov 0.30% - 0.00% -  
                   
  12/20 Personal Spending 07:00 Nov 0.40% - 0.30% -  
                   
  12/20 PCE Deflator MoM 07:00 Nov 0.20% - 0.20% -  
                   
  12/20 PCE Deflator YoY 07:00 Nov 1.40% - 1.30% -  
                   
  12/20 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Dec F 99.20 - 99.20 -  
                   
  12/20 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Dec -3.00 - -3.00 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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