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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   102-24.5 (+01.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-11 (+02.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.748%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, December 21, 2018
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries rallying across all maturities10-Year treasury yield is at 2.7866, 1.99 bps decreased from prior closing of 2.8065.

Just hours away from a deadline to reach the deal on border funding, President Trump warned of a “very long” shutdown if Senate Democrats did not vote for border security. House Republicans sought to meet his demands last night and added $5 Billion of funding to his project, however, Senators from both sides have indicated that the modified legislation won’t pass the chamber. With renewed risk of a government shutdown, stocks slid throughout yesterday but it pared the drop this morning. Treasuries and the dollar climbed while WTI crude extended its losses toward $45 per barrel.

We have a very busy economic calendar today. Third quarter GDP increased an annual rate of 3.40% vs. estimate of 3.50%, a 0.10% decrease from the second quarter reading of 3.50%. Personal Consumption also came in just shy of prior reading of 3.60% at 3.50%. Durable Goods Orders rebounded at 0.80% from -4.30% prior but still missed expectation of 1.60%. Personal Income for November printed 0.20% vs. consensus of 0.30% and prior reading of 0.50%. Personal Spending also declined to 0.40% from an upwardly revised prior of 0.80%. On the contrary, US Consumer Sentiment unexpectedly rose to 98.30 from 97.50 prior vs. 97.40 estimate.

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 1.99 bps.

Have A Lovely Weekend!
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  12/17 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Dec 20.00 10.90 23.30 -  
                   
  12/17 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Dec 60.00 56.00 60.00 -  
                   
  12/17 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 Oct - - -$29.10b -  
                   
  12/17 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 Oct - - $30.80b -  
                   
  12/18 Housing Starts 05:30 Nov 1226k 1256k 1228k 1217k  
                   
  12/18 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Nov -0.20% 3.20% 1.50% -1.60%  
                   
  12/18 Building Permits 05:30 Nov 1260k 1328k 1263k 1265k  
                   
  12/18 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Nov -0.40% 5.00% -0.60% -0.40%  
                   
  12/19 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 14 Dec - -5.80% 1.60% -  
                   
  12/19 Existing Home Sales 07:00 Nov 5.20m 5.32m 5.22m -  
                   
  12/19 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 Nov -0.40% 1.90% 1.40% -  
                   
  12/19 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 19 Dec 2.50% - 2.25% -  
                   
  12/19 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 19 Dec 2.25% - 2.00% -  
                   
  12/20 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Dec 15.00 9.40 12.90 -  
                   
  12/20 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 15 Dec 215k 214k 206k -  
                   
  12/20 Continuing Claims 05:30 8 Dec 1663k 1688k 1661k -  
                   
  12/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 16 Dec - 58.80 59.40 -  
                   
  12/20 Leading Index 07:00 Nov 0.00% 0.20% 0.10% -0.30%  
                   
  12/21 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 3Q T 3.50% 3.40% 3.50% -  
                   
  12/21 Personal Consumption 05:30 3Q T 3.60% 3.50% 3.60% -  
                   
  12/21 GDP Price Index 05:30 3Q T 1.70% 1.80% 1.70% -  
                   
  12/21 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 3Q T 1.50% 1.60% 1.50% -  
                   
  12/21 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Nov P 1.60% 0.80% -4.30% -  
                   
  12/21 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Nov P 0.30% -0.30% 0.20% 0.40%  
                   
  12/21 Personal Income 07:00 Nov 0.30% 0.20% 0.50% -  
                   
  12/21 Personal Spending 07:00 Nov 0.30% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80%  
                   
  12/21 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Dec F 97.40 98.30 97.50 -  
                   
  12/21 PCE Deflator MoM 07:00 Nov 0.00% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  12/21 PCE Deflator YoY 07:00 Nov 1.80% 1.80% 2.00% -  
                   
  12/21 PCE Core MoM 07:00 Nov 0.20% 0.10% 0.10% -  
                   
  12/21 PCE Core YoY 07:00 Nov 1.90% 1.90% 1.80% -  
                   
  12/21 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Dec 13.00 - 15.00 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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