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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   95-5.5 (-4.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   101-17.5 (-02)  
 
  Support   2.638%  
 
  Resistance   2.422%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, December 22, 2016
 
 
The UST 10-Year yield is at 2.549% this morning after closing at 2.536% yesterday.

Today's slew of economic releases was mostly positive. Real Gross Domestic Product increased at an annual rate of 3.50% for the 3rd quarter, the fastest in 2 years. The raise from the previous 3.20% was due to an increase in non-residential fixed investments, PCE, and state and local government spending. Personal Consumption, which accounts for ~70% the economic growth, expanded in the 3rd quarter from 2.80% to 3.00%. Orders for Durable Goods fell 4.60% in the month of November, primarily due to a 75% decrease in orders for commercial aircraft. Durable Goods excluding defense & air rose to 0.90% vs. 0.20% the previous month.

Initial Jobless Claims increased by 21K to 275K in the week ended December 17th, the highest seen in 6 months; potentially reflecting a shift in seasonal hiring. Claims for those continuing to receive unemployment benefits also rose in the week ended December 10th to 2036K from the previously revised 2021K.

The Consumer Comfort Index grew to 46.70 from 45.50, the highest since April 2015. Economic Expectations poll rose to 53.50 from 44.00 as prospect for an improving economy continues to rise. The State of Economy Index rose to 42.10 from 39.50, Personal Finance Index improved 0.70 to 56.80 and the Buying Climate Index rose 0.10 to 41.10. Personal Income remained unchanged and Personal Spending dropped slightly to 0.20% in the month of November. The Leading Index remained unchanged at 124.60.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year 1.3 bps up from prior closing.

 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  12/19 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Dec P 55.20 53.40 54.60 -  
                   
  12/19 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Dec P - 53.70 54.90 -  
                   
  12/20 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  12/21 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 16 Dec - 2.50% -4.00% -  
                   
  12/21 Existing Home Sales 07:00 Nov 5.50 M 5.61 M 5.60 M 5.57 M  
                   
  12/21 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 Nov -1.80% 0.70% 2.00% 1.50%  
                   
  12/22 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Nov -0.10 -0.27 -0.08 -0.05  
                   
  12/22 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 3Q T 3.30% 3.50% 3.20% -  
                   
  12/22 GDP Price Index 05:30 3Q T 1.40% 1.40% 1.40% -  
                   
  12/22 Personal Consumption 05:30 3Q T 2.80% 3.00% 2.80% -  
                   
  12/22 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 3Q T 1.70% 1.70% 1.70% -  
                   
  12/22 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Nov P -4.80% -4.60% 4.60% 4.80%  
                   
  12/22 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Nov P 0.20% 0.50% 0.80% 0.90%  
                   
  12/22 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 17 Dec 257 K 275 K 254 K -  
                   
  12/22 Continuing Claims 05:30 10 Dec 2010 K 2036 K 2018 K 2021 K  
                   
  12/22 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Oct 0.50% 0.40% 0.60% -  
                   
  12/22 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 18 Dec - 46.70 45.50 -  
                   
  12/22 Personal Income 07:00 Nov 0.30% 0.00% 0.60% 0.50%  
                   
  12/22 Personal Spending 07:00 Nov 0.30% 0.20% 0.30% 0.40%  
                   
  12/22 Leading Index 07:00 Nov 0.10% 0.00% 0.10% -  
                   
  12/22 PCE Deflator MoM 07:00 Nov 0.20% 0.00% 0.20% 0.30%  
                   
  12/22 PCE Deflator YoY 07:00 Nov 1.50% 1.40% 1.40% -  
                   
  12/22 PCE Core MoM 07:00 Nov 0.10% 0.00% 0.10% -  
                   
  12/22 PCE Core YoY 07:00 Nov 1.70% 1.60% 1.70% 1.80%  
                   
  12/23 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Dec F 98.00 - 98.00 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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