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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   103-14.5 (-02)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-24.5 (-0.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.713%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, December 31, 2018
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries falling across all maturities10-Year treasury yield is at 2.7215, 0.33 bp increased from prior closing of 2.7182.

President Trump twitted on Saturday that “big progress” was being made with Chinese President Xi on trade talks and global equities climbed including US equity futures. However, despite of gains in stocks today, major indexes remain down for 2018 and global stocks are set for their worst year since the financial crisis. Into 2019, there will still be a lot of event risks emerging including the ongoing trade talks and the dispute over border wall funding. For the remainder of this week, a joint interview with Fed Chair Powell and his predecessors Yellen and Bernanke at the American Economic Association meeting on Friday will draw investors’ attention. Treasuries fell and WTI crude rallied this morning.

There is only one economic data being released today; Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index came in unexpectedly low at -5.10 in December vs. 15.00 estimate and 17.60 prior. The final US jobs report for 2018 will be released this Friday.

The curve has bear-flattened with UST 10-Year yield up 0.33 bp.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  12/31 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Dec 15.00 -5.10 17.60 -  
                   
  01/01 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  01/02 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Dec F 53.90 - 53.90 -  
                   
  01/02 Wholesale Inventories MoM   Nov P 0.50% - 0.80% -  
                   
  01/02 New Home Sales   Nov 568k - 544k -  
                   
  01/02 New Home Sales MoM   Nov 4.40% - -8.90% -  
                   
  01/03 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 28 Dec - - - -  
                   
  01/03 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Dec - - 51.50% -  
                   
  01/03 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Dec 180k - 179k -  
                   
  01/03 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 29 Dec 220k - 216k -  
                   
  01/03 Continuing Claims 05:30 22 Dec - - 1701k -  
                   
  01/03 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 30 Dec - - 59.40 -  
                   
  01/03 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Nov 0.30% - -0.10% -  
                   
  01/03 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Dec 57.50 - 59.30 -  
                   
  01/03 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Dec 57.80 - 60.70 -  
                   
  01/04 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Dec 180k - 155k -  
                   
  01/04 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Dec 3.70% - 3.70% -  
                   
  01/04 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Dec 0.30% - 0.20% -  
                   
  01/04 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Dec 3.00% - 3.10% -  
                   
  01/04 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Dec - - 62.90% -  
                   
  01/04 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Dec F - - 53.60 -  
                   
  01/04 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Dec F 53.50 - 53.40 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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